Integrated Gas
| $ billions | Q3’23 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Production (kboe/d) | 880 – 920 | Production and LNG liquefaction outlook reflects scheduled maintenance (including Prelude and Trinidad and Tobago). |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 6.6 – 7.0 | |
| Underlying opex | 1.1 – 1.3 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 1.2 – 1.6 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.7 – 1.0 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| Trading & Optimisation: expected to be higher compared to Q2’23. | ||
Upstream
| $ billions | Q3’23 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,700 – 1,800 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.1 – 2.6 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 2.7 – 3.1 | |
| Taxation charge | 2.1 – 2.9 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q3’23 is expected to be around zero. Q3’23 exploration well-write offs are expected to be ~$0.2 billion. | ||
Marketing
| $ billions | Q3’23 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,450 – 2,850 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.1 – 2.5 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.3 – 0.7 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.2 – 0.4 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| Marketing results: expected to be similar to Q3’22. | ||
Chemicals & Products
| $ billions | Q3’23 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
| Indicative refining margin | $16/bbl | |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $116/tonne | The chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to be in line with Q2’23. |
| Refinery utilisation | 82% – 86% | |
| Chemicals utilisation | 68% – 72% | |
| Underlying opex | 2.8 – 3.2 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.8 – 1.0 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.0 – 0.5 | |
| Other Considerations: | ||
| Trading & Optimisation: expected to be higher than Q2’23. | ||
Renewables and Energy Solutions
| $ billions | Q3’23 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.3) – 0.3 |
Corporate
| $ billions | Q3’23 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.6) – (0.4) |
Shell Group
| $ billions | Q3’23 Outlook | Comment |
| CFFO: | ||
| Tax Paid | 2.7 – 3.5 | |
| Working Capital | (4) – 0 | Working capital estimations inherently have a broad range of uncertainty. |
| Other Shell Group Considerations: | ||
| – | ||
Guidance
The ‘Quarterly Databook’ contains guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities (Link).
Consensus
The consensus collection for quarterly Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA is per the reporting segments and CFFO at a Shell group level, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on October 26, 2023.
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