Attached is a link to the Monthly Investment Report for August 2023.
http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/9392L_1-2023-9-10.pdf
Higher global yields and fears about slowing economic growth in Europe and China saw the major bond and equity markets decline in August. The fund retreated, too, as market declines were not sharp or deep enough to trigger our potent derivative protections.
No single factor drove global yields higher. Instead, a smorgasbord of drivers included: ‘higher for longer’ interest rate policies amidst persistent inflation; heavy planned US Treasury issuance; robust US economic data; and Fitch’s US government credit rating downgrade, which highlighted the scale of the Federal deficit – already a whopping 6.5%, with full employment! The fund’s long-dated UK and US inflation-protected bonds suffered from the rise in yields. These should rally in the event of recession.
In Europe, flash PMIs (economic outlook indicators) pointed to a sharp contraction. Meanwhile, China’s re-opening is spluttering. Its c $60tn property market is reeling after years of regulatory pressure, deteriorating demography, shaken household confidence and a broken Ponzi-esque funding model. Piecemeal stimulus measures from Beijing have so far failed to reassure investors, but there’s little in the price for good news. We believe fatter market tail risks from China’s economy – and politics- will remain with us for years to come. Expect surprises.
China stocks aside, equity markets’ August retreat was relatively orderly. An uneventful earnings season plus a lack of policy or inflation shocks has kept volatility (‘vol’) in markets low. That has kept the vol-targeting machine-led investment strategies – so powerful in today’s markets – invested. The fund’s small equity allocation retreated with indices but, given the steady nature of the market decline, our derivatives have yet to kick in, so were a small performance drag. The same goes for our c 16% position in the yen, which declined modestly despite the Bank of Japan’s relaxation of yield curve control in July. Just like the derivatives, a significant market shock could see dramatic yen appreciation. Our c 8% oil position was the primary positive contributor, helped by continued OPEC supply-side discipline.
Markets still believe in a ‘soft landing’ – inflation dissipates without a recession. Yet we stick to our increasingly unfashionable belief that record monetary tightening’s full impact has yet to be felt. Locked-in low rates and faster nominal GDP growth have likely deferred – but not de-fanged – the biting point. Even America’s remarkably robust economy is displaying cracks. Covid-era excess savings have been spent; consumer confidence is slowing; Q2 GDP growth and recent payrolls were revised lower; US department stores are reporting rising credit card delinquencies.
Central banks could soon find themselves in a much trickier situation as inflation ‘base effects’ and (now rising) energy prices switch from being disinflationary tailwinds to inflationary ones. If economies continue to slow, this could raise recession risk by forcing central banks to stay inappropriately tight. But if economies reaccelerate – especially in the US – it raises the spectre of a second inflationary wave, with further rate hikes. From our derivatives to dollars, yen to bonds, the fund remains well-positioned for the reassertion of gravity in financial markets, and the opportunities that will lie beyond
Enquiries:
Sanne Fund Services (Guernsey) Limited
Jamie Dodd
Email: RIC@apexfs.group