UK markets were little changed this week, with the FTSE 100 Index falling by 0.25% to trade at 10,950 points at the time of writing.
Young jobseekers face a grim summer in the UK, with graduate openings at their lowest level for the time of year since the Covid-19 pandemic and seasonal work also at a four-year low. Data published by Indeed, the job search website, showed postings open to new or recent graduates have fallen by about 7% from last year to hit the lowest since 2020.
They also remained close to the lowest on record as a share of overall postings. Postings for temporary summer jobs that are often taken by young people in areas such as tourism, events or children’s camps, were at their weakest level in four years in early July. The figures are a sharp illustration of the battle that Prime Minister Andy Burnham will face to boost youth employment and cut the welfare bill through reforms to technical education, greater backing for apprenticeships and an expansion of state-subsidised jobs for young benefit claimants. Roughly 1 million young people in the UK are not in education, employment or training, and the latest official data shows unemployment among 18–24-year-olds at 14.8%.
The S&P Global UK Composite Purchasing Managers Index rose to 52.2 in July 2026 from 49.3 in June, broadly matching the preliminary estimate of 52.1 and signalling the strongest expansion in private sector activity since April. The improvement was driven by renewed growth in services and the fastest increase in manufacturing output since September 2024. New business rose for the first time in three months, although employment continued to decline amid ongoing job losses in the services sector.
Meanwhile, input cost inflation eased across both manufacturing and services, while output price inflation slowed to a five-month low.
Commodity markets
In the commodity markets, Brent crude futures traded around $82 per barrel on Friday and are set for a weekly fall, as Iran published a restrictive draft plan for the Strait of Hormuz. According to the apparent draft plan published by Iran, the country would ban US and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait, and until compensation is paid, other nations that have harmed Iran will not be allowed to transit.
While Iran and Oman are reportedly working on an agreement to define transit routes in the Hormuz strait, a deal still has not been announced. According to media reports, inbound traffic would transit Iranian waters while outbound traffic would go through Omani waters. Adding to supply concerns, Ukraine struck two of Russia’s major oil refineries overnight, and US imports of Saudi crude dropped to zero in July for the first time since 1985, according to market research from the United Overseas Bank.
Conflicting accounts of bilateral engagement are muddying the progress of a deal to open the Hormuz strait. While US President Donald Trump said in the Oval Office that the Iran war will end “pretty soon”, Tehran accused him of staging “theater diplomacy”. US officials have continued to express confidence that a deal with Iran is nearing, though investors remained cautious about the durability of any lasting peace in the region.
Gold prices traded around $4,325 an ounce on Friday and are on track for their biggest weekly gain since January, helped by weaker oil prices and hopes of peace in the Middle East, reducing inflation expectations.
Equity markets
US equity markets rose on Friday as investors cautiously awaited the closely watched July jobs report for fresh signals on labour market strength and the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy.
In Thursday’s regular trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.85%, the S&P 500 declined 0.18%, whilst the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.06%. Donald Trump’s administration has paid out about $100 billion in tariff refunds since the US Supreme Court struck down its use of emergency powers to levy duties on its trading partners earlier this year. The sum, which is 60% of the $165 billion collected from the president’s “liberation day” tariffs, was reported by US customs officials to judges at the US Court of International Trade on Tuesday. The judges in the lower court ordered US Customs and Border Protection to process the refunds after the Supreme Court in February barred the use of emergency economic powers to impose steep levies, significantly curtailing the president’s expansive use of executive authority. The rapid pace at which refunds have been issued is the latest twist in Trump’s trade war in which he has deployed tariffs on an unprecedented scale as part of sweeping efforts to reshape America’s relationship with the global economy. Following the top court’s ruling, US officials and Trump warned that the refunds would depend on further litigation.
The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000 for the week ended 1st August, the Labor Department said, while layoffs dropped to a two-year low in July, consistent with a stable labour market. Further data released on Thursday showed worker productivity grew faster than expected in the second quarter, curbing gains in labour costs. The lack of labour market stress and contained wage pressures gives the Federal Reserve room to focus on the inflation fallout from the Middle East conflict. There were some signs that the adoption of artificial intelligence by businesses was raising productivity last quarter.
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